Published by the United Nations Conference on Trade and
Development - UNCTAD
WORLD
INVESTMENT REPORT 2012
Towards a
New Generation of Investment Policies
Cover - Contents - Preface - Acknowledgements -
Abbreviations - Key messages
Overview
FDI from developed countries rose sharply in 2011, by 25
per cent, to reach $1.24 trillion. While all three major
developed-economy investor blocs – the European Union (EU), North
America and Japan – contributed to
this increase, the driving factors differed for each. FDI from the
United States was driven by a record level
of reinvested earnings (82 per cent of total FDI outflows), in part
driven by TNCs building on their foreign
cash holdings. The rise of FDI outflows from the EU was driven by
cross-border M&As. An appreciating yen
improved the purchasing power of Japanese TNCs, resulting in a doubling
of their FDI outflows, with net
M&A purchases in North America and Europe rising 132 per cent.
Outward FDI from developing economies declined by 4 per cent to $384
billion in 2011, although their
share in global outflows remained high at 23 per cent. Flows from Latin
America and the Caribbean fell 17
per cent, largely owing to the repatriation of capital to the region
(counted as negative outflows) motivated
in part by financial considerations (exchange rates, interest rate
differentials). Flows from East and South-
East Asia were largely stagnant (with an 9 per cent decline in those
from East Asia), while outward FDI from
West Asia increased significantly, to $25 billion.
CHAPTER I . GLOBAL INVESTMENT TRENDS
Global foreign direct investment (FDI) flows exceeded the
pre-crisis average in 2011, reaching $1.5
trillion despite turmoil in the global economy. However, they still
remained some 23 per cent below their
2007 peak.
UNCTAD predicts slower FDI growth in 2012, with flows levelling off at
about $1.6 trillion. Leading
indicators – the value of cross-border mergers and acquisitions
(M&As) and greenfield investments –
retreated in the first five months of 2012. Longer-term projections
show a moderate but steady rise,
with global FDI reaching $1.8 trillion in 2013 and $1.9 trillion in
2014, barring any macroeconomic
shocks.
FDI inflows increased across all major economic groupings in 2011.
Flows to developed countries
increased by 21 per cent, to $748 billion. In developing countries FDI
increased by 11 per cent,
reaching a record $684 billion. FDI in the transition economies
increased by 25 per cent to $92 billion.
Developing and transition economies respectively accounted for 45 per
cent and 6 per cent of global
FDI. UNCTAD’s projections show these countries maintaining their high
levels of investment over the
next three years.
Sovereign wealth funds (SWFs) show significant potential for investment
in development. FDI by SWFs
is still relatively small. Their cumulative FDI reached an estimated
$125 billion in 2011, with about
a quarter in developing countries. SWFs can work in partnership with
host-country governments,
development finance institutions or other private sector investors to
invest in infrastructure, agriculture
and industrial development, including the build-up of green growth
industries.
The international production of transnational corporations (TNCs)
advanced, but they are still holding
back from investing their record cash holdings. In 2011, foreign
affiliates of TNCs employed an estimated
69 million workers, who generated $28 trillion in sales and $7 trillion
in value added, some 9 per cent
up from 2010. TNCs are holding record levels of cash, which so far have
not translated into sustained
growth in investment. The current cash “overhang” may fuel a future
surge in FDI.
UNCTAD’s new FDI Contribution Index shows relatively higher
contributions by foreign affiliates to host
economies in developing countries, especially Africa, in terms of value
added, employment and wage
generation, tax revenues, export generation and capital formation. The
rankings also show countries
with less than expected FDI contributions, confirming that policy
matters for maximizing positive and
minimizing negative effects of FDI.
A . GLOBAL
FDI FLOWS
1 . Overall trends
a . FDI by geography
b . FDI by mode of entry
c . FDI by sector and industry
d . Investments by special funds
2 . Prospects
a . By mode of entry
b . By industry
c . By home region
d . By host region
B . INTERNATIONAL PRODUCTION AND THE LARGEST TNCS
1 . International production
2 . Disconnect between cash holdings and investment levels of the
largest TNCs
C . FDI ATTRACTION, POTENTIAL AND CONTRIBUTION INDICES
1 . Inward FDI Attraction and Potential Indices
2 . Inward FDI Contribution Index
CHAPTER II. REGIONAL TRENDS IN FDI
Salient features of 2011 FDI trends by region include the
following:
• Sub-Saharan Africa drew FDI not only to its natural resources, but
also to its emerging consumer
markets as the growth outlook remained positive. Political uncertainty
in North Africa deterred
investment in that region.
• FDI inflows reached new record levels in both East Asia and
South-East Asia, while the latter is
catching up with the former through higher FDI growth.
• FDI inflows to South Asia turned around as a result of higher inflows
to India, the dominant FDI
recipient in the region.
• Regional and global crises still weigh on FDI in West Asia, and
prospects remain unclear.
• South America was the main driver of FDI growth in Latin America and
the Caribbean. The pattern
of investment by traditional investors – Europe and the United States –
is changing, while there has
been an advance in FDI from developing countries and Japan. A recent
shift towards industrial policy
in major countries may lead to investment flows to targeted industries.
• FDI flows to economies in transition recovered strongly. They are
expected to grow further, partly
because of the accession of the Russian Federation to the World Trade
Organization (WTO).
• The search for energy and mineral resources resulted in cross-border
megadeals in developed
countries, but the eurozone crisis and a generally weak outlook still
cloud investor sentiment.
• FDI inflows to the structurally weak, vulnerable and small economies
were mixed. While FDI to
landlocked developing countries (LLDCs) grew strongly, inflows to least
developed countries (LDCs)
and small island developing States (SIDS) continued to fall.
INTRODUCTION
A . REGIONAL TRENDS
1 . Africa
2 . East and South-East Asia
3 . South Asia
4 . West Asia
5 . Latin America and the Caribbean
6 . Transition economies
7 . Developed countries
B . TRENDS IN STRUCTURALLY WEAK, VULNERABLE AND SMALL ECONOMIES
1 . Least developed countries
2 . Landlocked developing countries
3 . Small island developing States
CHAPTER III. RECENT POLICY DEVELOPMENTS
Many countries continued to liberalize and promote
foreign investment in various industries to stimulate
growth in 2011. At the same time, new regulatory and restrictive
measures continued to be introduced,
partly for industrial policy reasons. They became manifest primarily in
the adjustment of entry policies
for foreign investors (e.g. in agriculture and pharmaceuticals), in
extractive industries (e.g. through
nationalization and divestment requirements) and in a more critical
approach towards outward FDI.
International investment policymaking is in flux. The annual number of
new bilateral investment
treaties (BITs) continues to decline, while regional investment
policymaking is intensifying. Sustainable
development is gaining prominence in international investment
policymaking. Numerous ideas for
reform of the investor–State dispute settlement (ISDS) system have
emerged, but few have been put
into action.
Suppliers need support for CSR compliance. Corporate social
responsibility (CSR) codes of transnational
corporations (TNCs) often pose challenges for suppliers in developing
countries (particularly small and
medium-sized enterprises (SMEs)). They have to comply with and report
under multiple, fragmented
standards. Policymakers can alleviate these challenges and create new
opportunities for suppliers by
incorporating CSR into enterprise development and capacity-building
programmes. TNCs can also
harmonize standards and reporting requirements at the industry level.
A .
NATIONAL POLICY DEVELOPMENTS
1 . Investment liberalization and promotion remained high on the policy
agenda
2 . State regulation with regard to inward FDI continued
a . Adjusting entry policies with regard to inward FDI
b . More State influence in extractive industries
3 . More critical approach towards outward FDI
4 . Policy measures affecting the general business climate remain
important
5 . Conclusion: Common challenges in designing FDI policies
B . INTERNATIONAL INVESTMENT POLICIES
1 . Regional treaty making is gradually moving to centre stage
2 . Growing discontent with ISDS
3 . ISDS: unfinished reform agenda
4 . Enhancing the sustainable development dimension of international
investment policies
a . IIA - related developments
b . Other developments
C . CORPORATE SOCIAL RESPONSIBILITY IN GLOBAL SUPPLY CHAINS
1 . Supplier codes of conduct and implementation challenges
a . Proliferation of CSR codes
b . Challenges for suppliers ( particularly SMEs ) in developing
countries
2 . Policy options for effective promotion of CSR standards in global
supply chains
CHAPTER IV. INVESTMENT POLICY FRAMEWORK FOR
SUSTAINABLE DEVELOPMENT
Mobilizing investment and ensuring that it contributes to
sustainable development is a priority
for all countries. A new generation of investment policies is emerging,
as governments pursue
a broader and more intricate development policy agenda, while building
or maintaining a
generally favourable investment climate.
“New generation” investment policies place inclusive growth and
sustainable development at
the heart of efforts to attract and benefit from investment. This leads
to specific investment
policy challenges at the national and international levels. At the
national level, these
include integrating investment policy into development strategy,
incorporating sustainable
development objectives in investment policy and ensuring investment
policy relevance
and effectiveness. At the international level, there is a need to
strengthen the development
dimension of international investment agreements (IIAs), balance the
rights and obligations of
States and investors, and manage the systemic complexity of the IIA
regime.
To address these challenges, UNCTAD has formulated a comprehensive
Investment Policy
Framework for Sustainable Development (IPFSD), consisting of
(i) Core Principles for
investment policymaking,
(ii) guidelines for national investment policies, and
(iii) options for
the design and use of IIAs.
UNCTAD’s IPFSD can serve as a point of reference for policymakers in
formulating national
investment policies and in negotiating or reviewing IIAs. It provides a
common language for
discussion and cooperation on national and international investment
policies. It has been
designed as a “living document” and incorporates an online version that
aims to establish
an interactive, open-source platform, inviting the investment community
to exchange
views, suggestions and experiences related to the IPFSD for the
inclusive and participative
development of future investment policies.
A .
INTRODUCTION
B . A “NEW GENERATION” OF INVESTMENT POLICIES
1 . The changing investment policy environment
2 . Key investment policy challenges
3 . Addressing the challenges: UNCTAD's Investment Policy Framework for
Sustainable Development
C . CORE PRINCIPLES FOR INVESTMENT POLICYMAKING
1 . Scope and objectives of the Core Principles
2 . Core Principles for investment policymaking for sustainable
development
3 . Annotations to the Core Principles
D . NATIONAL INVESTMENT POLICY GUIDELINES
1 . Grounding investment policy in development strategy
2 . Designing policies for responsible investment and sustainable
development
3 . Implementation and institutional mechanisms for policy effectiveness
4 . The IPFSD's national policy guidelines
E . ELEMENTS OF INTERNATIONAL INVESTMENT AGREEMENTS: POLICY OPTIONS
1 . Defining the role of the IIAs in countries' development strategy
and investment policy
2 . Negotiating sustainable - development - friendly IIAs
3 . IIA elements: policy options
4 . Implementation and institutional mechanisms for policy effectiveness
F . THE WAY FORWARD
REFERENCES
ANNEX TABLES
SELECTED UNCTAD
PUBLICATIONS ON TNCS AND FDI
B o x e s
I . 1 . The increasing importance of indirect FDI flows
I . 2 . World Investments Prospects Survey 2012-2014: methodology and
results
I . 3 . UNCTAD’s FDI Attraction, Potential and Contribution Indices
I I . 1 . Attracting investment for development: old challenges
and new opportunities for South Asia
I I . 2 . Economic diversification and FDI in the GCC countries
I I . 3 . The Russian Federation's accession to the WTO: implication
for inward FDI flow
I I I . 1 . Investment Policy Monitor database: revised methodology
I I I . 2 . Examples of investment liberalization measures in 2011-2012
I I I . 3 . Examples of investment promotion and facilitation measures
in 2011-2012
I I I . 4 . Examples of FDI restrictions and regulations in 2011-2012
I I I . 5 . Selected policy measures affecting the general business
climate in 2011-2012
I I I . 6 . F D I and "green" protectionism
I V . 1 . Defining investment protectionism
I V . 2 . Scope of the IPFSD
I V . 3 . The origin of the Core Principles in international law
I V . 4 . Integrating investment policy in development strategy:
UNCTAD's Investment Policy Reviews
I V . 5 . UNCTAD's Entrepreneurship Policy Framework
I V . 6 . Designing sound investment rules and procedures: UNCTAD's
Investment Facilitation Compact
I V . 7 . Investment policy advice to "adapt and adopt": UNCTAD's
Series on Best Practices
in
Investment for Development
I V . 8 . Pre-establishment commitments in IIAs
I V . 9 . Special and differential treatment (SDT) and IIAs
B o x T a b l e s
I . 1 . 1 . FDI stock in financial holding companies, 2009
I . 1 . 2 . Inward FDI stock in the United States, by immediate and
ultimate source economy, 2000 and 2010
I . 3 . 1 . M e a s u r i n g F D I P o t e n t i a l : F D I d e t e r
m i n a n t s a n d p r o x y i n d i c a t o r s
I V . 4 . 1 . B e n e i c i a r i e s o f t h e U N C T A D I P R p r o
g r a m , 1 9 9 9 – 2 0 1 1
I V . 6 . 1 . B e n e i c i a r i e s o f s e l e c t e d p r o g r a m
s o f U N C T A D ’ s I n v e s t m e n t F a c i l i t a t i o n C o m
p a c t
B o x F i g u r e s
I I . 2 . 1 . A c c u m u l a t e d i n w a r d F D I s t o c k i n O m
a n , Q a t a r a n d S a u d i A r a b i a , b y s e c t o r , 2 0 1 0
I V . 5 . 1 . K e y c o m p o n e n t s o f U N C T A D ’ s E n t r e p
r e n e u r s h i p P o l i c y F r a m e w o r k
F i g u r e s
I . 1 . U N C T A D ’ s G l o b a l F D I Q u a r t e r l y I n d e x ,
2 0 0 7 Q 1 – 2 0 1 2 Q 1
I . 2 . F D I i n l o w s , g l o b a l a n d b y g r o u p o f e c o n
o m i e s , 1 9 9 5 – 2 0 1 1
I . 3 . F D I i n l o w s i n d e v e l o p e d c o u n t r i e s b y c
o m p o n e n t , 2 0 0 5 – 2 0 1 1
I . 4 . F D I o u t l o w s h a r e s b y m a j o r e c o n o m i c g r
o u p s , 2 0 0 0 – 2 0 1 1
I . 5 . V a l u e o f c r o s s - b o r d e r M & A s a n d g r e e
n i e l d F D I p r o j e c t s w o r l d w i d e , 2 0 0 7 – 2 0 1
1
I . 6 . C r o s s - b o r d e r M & A s b y p r i v a t e e q u i t
y i r m s , b y s e c t o r a n d m a i n i n d u s t r y , 2 0 0 5
and 2 0 1 1
I . 7 . A n n u a l a n d c u m u l a t i v e v a l u e o f F D I b y S
W F s , 2 0 0 0 – 2 0 1 1
I . 8 . P r o i t a b i l i t y a n d p r o i t l e v e l s o f T N C s
, 1 9 9 9 – 2 0 1 1
I . 9 . G l o b a l F D I l o w s , 2 0 0 2 – 2 0 1 1 , a n d p r o j e
c t i o n f o r 2 0 1 2 – 2 0 1 4
I . 1 0 . F D I l o w s b y g r o u p o f e c o n o m i e s , 2 0 0 2 –
2 0 1 1 , a n d p r o j e c t i o n f o r 2 0 1 2 – 2 0 1 4
I . 1 1 . T N C s ’ p e r c e p t i o n o f t h e g l o b a l i n v e s
t m e n t c l i m a t e , 2 0 1 2 – 2 0 1 4
I . 1 2 . I m p o r t a n c e o f e q u i t y a n d n o n - e q u i t y
m o d e s o f e n t r y , 2 0 1 2 a n d 2 0 1 4
I . 1 3 . I P A s ’ s e l e c t i o n o f m o s t p r o m i s i n g i n
v e s t o r h o m e e c o n o m i e s f o r F D I i n 2 0 1 2 – 2 0 1
4
I . 1 4 . T N C s ’ t o p p r o s p e c t i v e h o s t e c o n o m i e
s f o r 2 0 1 2 – 2 0 1 4
I . 1 5 . T o p i n v e s t o r s a m o n g t h e l a r g e s t T N C s
, 2 0 1 1
I . 1 6 . T o p 1 0 0 T N C s : c a s h h o l d i n g s , 2 0 0 5 – 2 0
1 1
I . 1 7 . T o p 1 0 0 T N C s : m a j o r c a s h s o u r c e s a n d u
s e s , 2 0 0 5 – 2 0 1 1
I . 1 8 . T o p 1 0 0 T N C s : c a p i t a l e x p e n d i t u r e s a
n d a c q u i s i t i o n s , 2 0 0 5 – 2 0 1 1
I . 1 9 . F D I A t t r a c t i o n I n d e x : t o p 1 0 r a n k e d e
c o n o m i e s , 2 0 1 1
I . 2 0 . F D I A t t r a c t i o n I n d e x v s F D I P o t e n t i a
l I n d e x M a t r i x , 2 0 1 1
I . 2 1 . F D I C o n t r i b u t i o n I n d e x v s F D I p r e s e n
c e , 2 0 1 1
I I . 1 . V a l u e o f g r e e n i e l d i n v e s t m e n t s i n A f
r i c a , b y s e c t o r , 2 0 0 3 – 2 0 1 1
I I I . 1 . N a t i o n a l r e g u l a t o r y c h a n g e s , 2 0 0 0
– 2 0 1 1
I I I . 2 . B I T s a n d “ o t h e r I I A s ” , 2 0 0 6 – 2 0 1 1
I I I . 3 . N u m b e r s a n d c o u n t r y c o v e r a g e o f B I T
s a n d “ o t h e r I I A s ” , 2 0 0 6 – 2 0 1 1
I I I . 4 . K n o w n i n v e s t o r - S t a t e t r e a t y - b a s e
d d i s p u t e s , 1 9 8 7 – 2 0 1 1
I V . 1 . Structure and components of the IPFSD
T a b l e s
I . 1 . Share of FDI projects by BRIC countries, by host region,
average 2005-2007 (pre-crisis period) and 2011
I . 2 . S e c t o r a l d i s t r i b u t i o n o f F
D I
p r o j e c t s , 2 0 0 5 – 2 0 1 1
I . 3 . D i s t r i b u t i o n s h a r e s a n d g r
o w t h
r a t e s o f F D I p r o j e c t v a l u e s
, b y
s e c t o r / i n d u s t r y , 2 0 1 1
I . 4 . C r o s s - b o r d e r M & As b y p r i
v a t e
e q u i t y fi r m s , 1 9 9 6 – 2 0 1 1
I . 5 . F D I b y SWFs b y h o s t r e g
i o n / c o u n t r y ,
c u m u l a t i v e fl o w s , 2 0 0 5 – 2 0 1 1
I . 6 . F D I b y SWFs b y s e c t o r / i n d
u s t r y ,
c u m u l a t i v e f l o w s , 2 0 0 5 – 2 0 1 1
I . 7 . S u m m a r y o f e c o n o m e t r i c r e s
u l t s
o f m e d i u m - t e r m b a s e l i n e s c e n a r
i o s
o f F D I f l o w s , b y r e g i o n
I . 8 . S e l e c t e d i n d i c a t o r s o f F D
I
a n d i n t e r n a t i o n a l p r o d u c t i o n , 1 9 9
0 – 2 0 1 1
I . 9 . I n t e r n a t i o n a l i z a t i o n s t a t i s t i c
s
o f t h e 1 0 0 l a r g e s t n o n - fi n a n c i a
l
T N C s w o r l d w i d e a n d f r o m d e v e
l o p i n g
a n d t r a n s i t i o n e c o n o m i e s
I . 1 0 . U N C T A D ’ s F D I C o n t r i b u t i o
n
I n d e x , b y h o s t r e g i o n , 2 0 0
9
I . 1 1 . F D I C o n t r i b u t i o n I n d e x m e
d i a n
v a l u e s , b y i n d i c a t o r
I I . 1 . F D I f l o w s , b y r e g i o n , 2 0 0 9 – 2 0
1 1
I I . 2 . F D I i nf l o w s t o G r e e c e ,
I t a l y ,
P o r t u g a l a n d S p a i n , b y c o m p o
n e n t ,
2 0 0 7 – 2 0 1 1
I I . 3 . F D I o u t fl o w s f r o m G r e e c e
,
I t a l y , P o r t u g a l a n d S p a i n , b
y c
o m p o n e n t , 2 0 0 7 – 2 0 1 1
I I . 4 . T h e 1 0 l a r g e s t g r e e n f i e l
d
p r o j e c t s i n L D C s , 2 0 1 1
I I . 5 . T h e 1 0 l a r g e s t g r e e n fi e l d
p r o j e c t s
i n L L D C s , 2 0 1 1
I I . 6 . S e l e c t e d l a r g e s t M & A s a
l e s
i n S I D S , 2 0 1 1
I I . 7 . T h e 1 0 l a r g e s t g r e e n fi e l
d
p r o j e c t s i n S I D S , 2 0 1 1
I I I . 1 . N a t i o n a l r e g u l a t o r y c h a n g e
s ,
2 0 0 0 – 2 0 1 1
I I I . 2 . N a t i o n a l r e g u l a t o r y c h a n g e
s
i n 2 0 1 1 , b y i n d u s t r y
I I I . 3 . E x a m p l e s o f s u s t a i n a b l e - d e
v e l o p m e n t - f r i e n d l y
a s p e c t s o f s e l e c t e d I I A s s i g
n e d
i n 2 0 1 1
I V . 1 . National investment policy challenges
I V . 2 . International investment policy challenges
I V . 3 . Possible indicators for the definition of investment impact
objectives and the measurement of policy effectiveness
I V . 4 . Structure of the National Investment Policy Guidelines
I V . 5 . Policy options to operationalize sustainable development
objectives in IIAs
|